Commanders vs Chiefs Odds, Picks and Predictions

After Kansas City and Washington both tripped out of the preseason gates, the pair will meet at Arrowhead. While the Chiefs give Patrick Mahomes an extended run, the Commanders deal with a long injury list — so our picks shouldn’t be a surprise.

The Washington Commanders hit the road for the first time under their new team name. They face a trip to face the Kansas City Chiefs after both teams dropped a game in the first week of preseason.

Don’t miss our NFL picks and predictions for the Commanders vs. Chiefs, with kickoff on August 20.

Commanders vs Chiefs odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The total points line has risen from 42.5 to 44 while the Chiefs have strengthened from 3.5-point favorites to 5.5-point favorites since the lines opened.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Commanders vs Chiefs predictions

Predictions made on 8/19/2022 at 11:00 am ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Commanders vs Chiefs game info

Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Date: Saturday, August 20, 2022
Kickoff: 4:00 pm ET
TV: NFL Network

Commanders at Chiefs betting preview


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Key injuries

Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Andy Reid has only had one preseason under .500 in the past six seasons and his team is currently 0-1. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Chiefs.

Commanders vs Chiefs picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Despite all the excitement around the Commanders, they have a number of injury issues around key positions at tight end, center, and guard. In truth, Ron Rivera would probably prefer it if his team didn’t need to play on Saturday, but they do, and he says that he’s given serious thought to playing offensive linemen at TE, given the issues there.

Injuries are nothing new in football, but given it’s preseason and we’ll be seeing a lot of second- and third-string guys tasked with defending the QB, it wouldn’t be a shock if Carson Wentz gets little, or even no, game time on Saturday. To put it simply, Rivera has to protect his team’s signal caller.

We know how things usually work in preseason. The second game usually operates as a chance to see some starters, with the third and final game instead being used almost exclusively to observe those players on the roster bubble.

With that in mind, it shouldn’t be a shock to hear that Andy Reid has declared that the Chiefs’ starters will play the first half against the Commanders, so we will see Patrick Mahomes. I’m a little skeptical of the claim that they’ll play a full half, but we can probably expect at least one quarter with their franchise QB under center.

With Mahomes in control of the offense, they should easily win this game and should put up a strong enough lead to cover the spread.

Over the past few seasons, Reid has generally done well in preseason, and with the injuries on the Commanders’ roster, I’d expect his Chiefs team to cover the spread here.

Some books still have -4.5 lines available, and it’s worth scooping these up now before they join the consensus line elsewhere.

Prediction: Chiefs -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Covers NFL betting analysis

Over/Under analysis

At the end of the first week of NFL preseason, the Over was 14-3, and it is clear that the sportsbooks have made changes to their models when you look at the points totals this week. With the total points line rising, I think this is the perfect time to go against the grain and take the Under.

With Wentz unlikely to see much action and the offensive line in tatters, it is easy to see the Commanders struggling to score.

You’d also think that Reid’s claims about starters playing a whole half will be baked into the odds. I’m confident that we won’t see that much from Mahomes & Co., so with a less dynamic offense on the field for the Chiefs, we should see this game go Under 44.

Prediction: Under 44 (-110 at bet365)

Best bet

When it comes to NFL preseason, you can never be totally confident, but when you hear Ron Rivera talk about the injuries along his offensive line and at tight end, you really have to be concerned about their ability to keep the quarterback upright.

For that reason, I’m certain we won’t see much of Wentz, while his backups Taylor Heinicke and Sam Howell will struggle. For that reason, I’m very confident that we should see the Kansas City Chiefs get back to winning ways and cover on their home field.

Pick: Chiefs -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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