Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Denver Nuggets (9-6) vs. Dallas Mavericks (9-6)

The 2022-23 NBA betting action continues Sunday in this Western Conference battle when the Denver Nuggets take on the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas.

Dallas defeated Denver on Friday evening, 127-99. That is the third straight victory for the Mavericks over the Nuggets dating back to November 2021.

Nuggets Fall in Dallas

The Denver Nuggets (9-6, 6-9-0 ATS) entered the second quarter trailing by two points, but Dallas dominated the frame, earning a 127-99 victory. The Nuggets shot 42.2% from the field, a significant decline in their performance. Denver is second in field-goal percentage (49.4%) and first in three-point shooting (41.3%), but hit 10-30 (33.3%) three-point attempts in the loss. The club is now 5-5 on the road.

“I’m going to go home and pray the rosary tonight that we can get some help,” head coach Michael Malone said following the loss. Malone was seeking a bit of divine intervention, as Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon all missed Friday’s contest, and are not expected to play Sunday either.

Kentavious Caldwell and Bruce Brown led Denver with 18 points. Brown was 7-12 shooting while Caldwell hit 7-13 of his shots. Bones Hyland came off the bench to produce 17 and is now fourth on the club in points per game at 14.9. The loss of Jokic is huge, as he leads the team in points (20.8), rebounds (9.5), and assists (8.9) per game.

Doncic Triple-Double Propels Mavericks

Luka Doncic recorded a triple-double, scoring 33 points while adding 12 rebounds and 11 assists to lead the Dallas Mavericks (9-6, 4-10-1 ATS) past Dallas. The Mavericks were red-hot in this contest, hitting 59.7% of their shots, including 13-32 (40.6%) from three-point range. They also dominated Denver on the glass, outrebounding the Nuggets 44-36.

“I don’t look at the stat sheet, so I don’t know if he has a triple-double or if he has 35 points,” Mavericks head coach Jason Kidd explained about Doncic wanting to stay in the contest. “We’ve been playing him to start the fourth, so this is something we could be looking at going forward.”

Besides Doncic having a big game, Christian Wood came off the bench to score 28 points, hitting 11 of 16 shots, while adding eight rebounds. The four other starters produced 36 points, eclipsing Doncic by just three. Dallas is averaging 109.9 points per game, 23rd overall, but they are first in points allowed per contest at 105.8. Reggie Bullock (neck) is probable while Max Kleber (back) is out.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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The Mavericks dominated Friday night’s contest, as Doncic had a huge performance. However, one has to realize that the reason Dallas was able to handle Denver the way they did was because the Nuggets were missing three of their top players, including their top two scorers. That is a lot to try to overcome, as 50+ points were lost before the tipoff.

While Gordon may be available for this contest, there is no replacing Murray and Jokic. Plus, you have to like Dallas after they dominated a game where Doncic received virtually no assistance from the other four starters. All that is needed is a little more support from them and the Mavericks could blow Denver out even more. Also, keep in mind that Dallas has dominated Denver recently and the Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks ATS -9.5 (-110)

Full-Game Total Pick

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After the teams combined for 226 points on Friday, this total is a little surprising. In recent history, these teams have played low-scoring games, as the three previous contests saw fewer than 216 points scored, including 192 in January 2022 and 181 scored in October 2021.

However, one cannot ignore that performance on Friday. Doncic had his way with the Nuggets, and it would not be surprising to see him do that again here. Without Murray or Jokic to keep this game honest, the Mavericks are likely to move up and down the court with incredible ease. They shot better than 53% in the victory on Friday. One may not suspect that in this contest, but 48% or 49% is quite likely.

Denver has gone over in seven of their last nine games on the road. Dallas has gone over in four of their last five following a victory.

Prediction: Go over 216.5 (-110)

Written By
Admir Aljic, “The Admiral”

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so he knows a thing or two about how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. He has lined his own pockets for years as a betting expert. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.

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