We’re back with another installment of our MLB player prop picks, and we have some great value. We’ll be targeting two veteran pitchers to go deep into their respective games, and a Giants’ hitter to stay off the bases against Colorado.
We’re officially in the home stretch of the MLB season, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of player prop value left out there. I’ve dug into every baseball market to find which props hold the most bang for their buck and I’ll tell you why. The new Covers player prop page is also a great new tool for finding gems.
For my free picks, I’m betting on a guy hitting under .200 who is a big pinch-hit risk for +205, backing a vet with a taxed bullpen, and riding the reigning AL Cy Young winner vs. one of the worst lineups in baseball.
MLB props for September 21
Picks made on 9/21/2022 at 9:00 am ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
A donut in the lead-off spot
LaMonte Wade Jr. returned to the lineup after missing three games with side tightness last night, and although he hits at the top of the lineup and recorded a hit, I’m fading the pinch-hit risk for a solid +205.
Wade will face German Marquez but if the Rockies go with a left-hander in the middle innings, it could be the end of Wade’s night — especially coming off the minor injury. He’s hitting just .107 off lefties in 28 at bats, and THE BAT has him as a robust 51% pinch-hit risk.
Wade is also not hitting right-handed pitching well (.209 BA) and has gone hitless in five of his last nine games with at least one plate appearance.
At the end of the day, we’re getting +205 odds for a .194 hitter to go hitless and he has a better than 50/50 chance of getting pinch-hit for.
LaMonte Wade Jr. Prop: Under 0.5 hits (+205)
Covers MLB betting analysis
Just a veteran eating innings
Thanks to yesterday’s doubleheader, the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen is taxed. All four of their best middle-relievers were used and two of them are likely out today after pitching 34-plus pitches. In all, the Diamondbacks used eight relievers yesterday for eight total innings of work.
Enter veteran lefty Madison Bumgarner. He could be asked to get a little deeper today in a tough matchup vs. the Dodgers, but that’s already priced in.
The Arizona starter’s total outs market sits at 15.5 and is paying plus money for the Over. In six of his last 10 starts, that total has closed at 17.5. He’s recorded over 15 outs in seven of his last 10 starts and hit 15 outs in two of them. In fact, over his last 21 starts, he’s been held to Under 15 outs just twice.
The Dodgers tax might be too much here and Bumgarner should flirt with 100 pitches thanks to a tired bullpen after yesterday’s games.
Madison Bumgarner Prop: Over 15.5 outs (+120)
Big day for Ray
Robbie Ray will get a cupcake matchup tonight in a great park as he takes on the Athletics at the Coliseum. His out market is sitting at 18.5 and paying +120 to get at least one out in the seventh inning.
The Athletics got to Luis Castillo last night, but it was one inning where the Seattle pitcher fell apart and couldn’t locate. It was more on Castillo than an improvement from this awful Oakland lineup that featured six batters hitting under .230 and three hitting .200 or lower.
Ray is coming off back-to-back rough outings but had recorded 19 or more outs in four of his last six starts before that. Ray has seen the A’s three times this year and has 28 punchouts over 18 2-3 innings with a .217 batting average against.
THE BAT has Ray projected for 106 pitches, 19.5 outs, and 7.47 strikeouts.
Robbie Ray Prop: Over 18.5 outs (+120 at bet365)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $137.62 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.