Wildly Optimistic Forecasts: Examining Fed GDP Projections For 2022 and 2023 – Mish Talk

In conjunction with the Fed’s FOMC meeting on September 21, each Fed member made projections for interest rates, the unemployment rate, inflation, and GDP.

PCE Inflation

  • The Fed wants 2.0 percent inflation longer term so every Fed member forecast precisely 2.0 percent inflation despite the fact the Fed missed projections for a decade.
  • I really don’t know where inflation will be in 2022 or 2023 or longer term and neither do they. There are too many moving parts with Russia, the mid-term elections, Biden’s energy policy and heaven help us if the Democrats manage to hold the House while adding even 1 seat to the Senate.


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